Global economy watch | Projections
Economic forecasts
Real GDP growth, inflation, interest rate projection and GCI update.
Top 3 movers:
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
- Mexico
| Share of world GDP | Real GDP growth | Inflation | ||||||||
| Country | PPP | MER | 2012p | 2013p | 2014p | 2015-9 | 2012p | 2013p | 2014p | 2015-9 |
| Global (market exchange rates) | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | ||
| Global (PPP rates) | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.7 | ||||||
| United States | 19.1% | 21.7% | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| China | 14.3% | 10.5% | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Japan | 5.6% | 8.4% | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | -0.0 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| United Kingdom | 2.9% | 3.5% | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Eurozone | 14.2% | 18.8% | -0.6 | -0.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| France | 2.8% | 4.0% | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Germany | 3.9% | 5.1% | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Greece | 0.4% | 0.4% | -6.4 | -4.2 | -1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 1.0 |
| Ireland | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Italy | 2.3% | 3.2% | -2.2 | -1.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Netherlands | 0.9% | 1.2% | -0.9 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Portugal | 0.3% | 0.3% | -3.2 | -2.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Spain | 1.8% | 2.1% | -1.4 | -1.4 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Poland | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Russia | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| Turkey | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| Australia | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| India | 5.7% | 2.4% | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
| Indonesia | 1.4% | 1.2% | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| South Korea | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Argentina | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 9.7 |
| Brazil | 2.9% | 3.6% | 0.2 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Canada | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Mexico | 2.1% | 1.7% | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| South Africa | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.8 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the CPI, with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the WPI.
Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios, particularly for the Eurozone.
*Note that PPP refers to Purchasing Power Parity and MER refers to market exchange rates. The arrows indicate how our growth projections have changed compared to our view in the previous month.
The table above forms our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend our clients to look at a range of alternative scenarios, particularly for the Eurozone. Please see our ‘Now what’s next for the Eurozone?’ paper for an example of this approach.
| Interest rate outlook of major economies | ||||
| Current state (Last change) |
Expectation | Next Meeting | ||
| Federal Reserve | 0-0.25% | (Dec 2008) | On hold to 2015 | 18-19 June |
| European Central Bank | 0.75% | (July 2012) | Cut expected in 2013 | 2 May |
| Bank of England | 0.50% | (March 2009) | On hold to end of 2013 | 8 and 9 May |
Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the CPI, with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the WPI. Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios, particularly for the Eurozone. Note that PPP refers to Purchasing Power Parity and MER refers to market exchange rates.
Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the CPI, with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the WPI. Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios, particularly for the Eurozone.
*Note that PPP refers to Purchasing Power Parity and MER refers to market exchange rates. The arrows indicate how our growth projections have changed compared to our view in the previous month.
PwC Global Consumer Index – April 2013
Consumption growth remains in positive territory but is below its long-term average. This can partly be explained by the continued uncertainty in the Eurozone which continues to weigh down on global consumption growth.
The Global Consumer Index is a timely leading indicator of global consumer spending, it is based on a series of economic and market indicators, including equity market performance, consumer and business confidence, credit markets and commodity prices. For additional commentary on our methodology please visit: pwc.co.uk/globalconsumerindex for more details.
Growth refers to the year-on-year change. Momentum is calculated as the 3 month annualised growth rate.
Source: PwC Analysis
