Economic projections: April 2014

Real GDP growth, inflation, interest rate projection and GCI update.

   GDP growth  Inflation
  2013p 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p
Global (market exchange rates) 2.5 3.1 3.2 3.2 4.7 5.0 5.6 4.7
Global (PPP rates) 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.7  
United States 1.9 3.0 3.0 2.4 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9
China 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.4
Japan 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.4 2.1 1.8 1.5
United Kingdom  1.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 1.8 1.9 2.0
Eurozone -0.4 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.9
France  0.1 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.0
Germany  0.5 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0
Greece  -3.8 0.2 1.8 2.5 -0.9 -0.3 0.1 1.0
Ireland  0.1 2.1 1.8 2.5 0.5 1.4 1.2 1.7
Italy  -1.8 0.4 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.7
Netherlands  0.9 0.8 0.9 2.0 2.5 1.4 1.7 2.1
Portugal -1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.5
Spain -1.2 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.7
Poland 1.5 2.6 3.4 3.9 1.2 1.4 2.5 2.5
Russia 1.6 2.0 2.9 3.8 6.8 5.8 5.3 5.6
Turkey 3.7 2.6 4.3 4.5 7.5 7.3 6.1 4.8
Australia 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.7
India 4.6 5.4 6.4 6.5 6.3 5.2 6.0 6.0
Indonesia 5.8 5.5 5.8 6.3 7.0 6.2 5.3 5.1
South Korea 2.8 2.8 4.0 3.8 1.2 1.8 2.9 2.9
Argentina 5.0 0.7 1.8 3.3 10.6 11.9 13.3 9.7
Brazil 2.3 1.8 2.5 4.0 6.2 6.1 5.6 4.8
Canada 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.2 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.1
Mexico 1.6 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.6
South Africa 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.8 5.8 6.2 5.0 4.8
Saudi Arabia 3.8 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.0

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentinian inflation figures are based on the old price index which measure CPI in Greater Buenos Aires. A new index the "National and urban Consumer Price Index" (NuCPI) has now been released by INDEC the Argentinian statistical agency. We will monitor this new price index and will base our projection on this once we have several months of data available. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios

Interest rate outlook of major economies
  Current rate
(Last change)
Expectation Next Meeting
Federal Reserve 0-0.25% (Dec. 2008)  QE tapering to continue during 2014 29/30 April
European Central Bank 0.25% (Nov. 2013)   On hold 3 April
Bank of England 0.5% (Mar. 2009)  On hold 3 April

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentinian inflation figures are based on the old price index which measure CPI in Greater Buenos Aires. A new index the "National and urban Consumer Price Index" (NuCPI) has now been released by INDEC the Argentinian statistical agency. We will monitor this new price index and will base our projection on this once we have several months of data available. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios

PwC Global Consumer Index – March 2014

Global consumer spending growth picks up to 3.6% this month. Global equity market activity and market confidence dipped slightly in February.

These are offset by increases in global money supply and supported by the rebound in US industrial production from last month, which marks a positive turn in businesses’ expectations of consumer demand over the next few months.

PwC’s Global Consumer Index – January 2014

The GCI is a monthly updated index providing an early steer on consumer spending and growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies. For more information, please visit pwc.co.uk/globalconsumerindex