It is easy to forget, amid the doom and gloom here in Europe, that the global economy continues to grow at a reasonable rate. In fact, our main scenario is for global growth of 3.1% this year – just below its trend over the last decade.
So in this month’s edition we’ve looked for pockets of opportunities that exist in the global economy.
We’ve focused on four countries – Mexico, Indonesia, Australia and Poland – which have all demonstrated economic resilience and are well placed to prosper in the coming years.
These economies have benefited from:
- a swift recovery from the 2008 crisis;
- fiscal and financial stability which has helped promote credit growth and support demand; and
- (with the exception of Australia) they are going though rapid structural change.
Nevertheless, we cannot ignore events in Europe. The latest data release confirms a Eurozone contraction in Q2, and uncertainty over the euro is weighing down on confidence suggesting further contraction ahead – our main scenario is for the Eurozone to shrink by 0.7% in 2012.
Closer to home, our special focus is on the UK Governement's "Funding for Lending Scheme." Our analysis shows that small businesses will have to worry less about finance costs and be able to spend more time on revenue generation.
To find out more on the economies discussed here, take a look at our website.