Our predictions and views revolve around the key events that will or may be taking place this year, tipping points or changes across different markets, expected policy outcomes and trending issues and ideas.
What will happen to world GDP and which countries will contribute towards global growth?
World GDP will recover (10% above pre-recession peak in 2008). It will be the first time when emerging and developing economies will be bigger than advanced economies.
What might we see in the Eurozone?
We could see a glimpse of a more integrated Eurozone by the end of the year - if the process of fiscal, banking, economic and political reform is not disrupted.
What impact will devolution have on the UK economy?
By the end of 2013, the UK economy will be less of a highly integrated fiscal and monetary union than it was at the start of the year. There may be potential tax changes in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and moves towards future reforms in allocating Treasury funding.
How do we plan for a warmer world?
For the business community that means more focus on resilience and adaptation to climate change. Pressure on costs has kept energy efficiency on the business agenda, but in 2013 CEOs will look beyond carbon reduction (or what is termed ‘mitigation’) when they look at climate change risks.
What is the future of “Green Growth” in the UK?
In 2013 we expect to see the growing importance of low-carbon and environmental industries to the UK economy. This sector could be one of the catalysts to help kick-start the UK economy – already contributing 8% to GDP and employing almost a million people.
Where next for the climate negotiations?
Targets, finance and ‘loss and damage’ will be high on the agenda at the climate negotiations in 2013. New findings from the IPCC’s fifth Assessment Report (AR5) will highlight the gap between current emissions pledges and what the science tells us is necessary for 2 degrees. At the next COP in Warsaw in November, countries are expected to propose measures to increase ambition in the short term, i.e. up to 2020, but it is likely that these discussions will remain largely qualitative in 2013.