Leaving the EU: Implications for the UK financial services sector

In March 2016, TheCityUK commissioned PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) to provide an analysis of the potential economic impacts of a UK exit from the EU on the FS sector. This builds on our previous report that was commissioned by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which set out the potential impacts of the UK leaving the EU on the UK economy under two exit scenarios. Although we used a multi-sector model of the UK economy to analyse the potential economic implications of the UK leaving the EU in the PwC/CBI report, the impacts at the industry sector level were modelled, but not presented. This report therefore provides the results of the PwC/CBI analysis from the perspective of the UK FS sector for both exit scenario we considered.

Some of the key findings highlight:   

  • A comparison of the impacts between UK GDP and FS GVA showing that the FS sector is disproportionately impacted by the UK leaving the EU compared to the UK
  • The UK FS sector will continue to grow under both exit scenarios
  • An estimated reduction of 70,000-100,000 in UK FS employment (number of people employed) in 2020 relative to the counterfactual
  • There are significant uncertainties on the economic impacts of a potential UK exit from the EU, in particular for the FS sector. 

For full insights and findings please download the report:

Leaving the EU: Implications for the UK financial services sector