PwC comments on August's GDP data

Oct 10, 2019

Commenting on August's GDP data, PwC chief economist John Hawksworth said:

"Barring major future revisions, today's GDP data has put to bed fears of the UK economy falling into recession in the third quarter of 2019. However, there could be problems ahead in the fourth quarter as heightened Brexit-related uncertainty takes a toll on both business investment and consumer confidence.

Although GDP fell slightly by 0.1% in August, this was offset by small upward revisions to past estimates of monthly growth in June and July. As a result, the three month trend growth rate picked up to 0.3% in August and looks set to be around 0.4% in Q3 2019 as a whole. This is in line with predictions from PwC's machine learning model of GDP growth last month.

However, the recent trend has been less favourable, with services output flat in August and both construction and industrial production falling back. Furthermore, business surveys show a decline in both output and employment across the private sector economy in September as Brexit-related uncertainty has increased."

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