July labour market figures - PwC comments

Sep 10, 2019

PwC economist Jing Teow comments on July's labour market data:

"The proportion of people out of work remains very low, with the unemployment rate at 3.8% in the three months to July. Overall wage growth has continued to improve since the original Brexit deadline in March, with nominal wage growth rising to 4.0%. Real wages also rose at their quickest rate in nearly four years, delivering a boost to workers’ pay packets.  

This evidence of continued jobs growth, together with yesterday's stronger than expected GDP data for July, reinforces our view that the UK should avoid a technical recession in the third quarter. Indeed, our latest GDP nowcasting model estimate, based on a machine learning analysis of a broad range of timely economic indicators, points to potential GDP growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2019. This would more than reverse the 0.2% GDP decline seen in the second quarter.

However, there are some signs of softening in the labour market, notably the continued decline in job creation and vacancies, which point to continued uncertainty as businesses wait and see how Brexit plays out before making firm hiring plans. The UK growth outlook beyond the current quarter remains unclear due both to alternative Brexit scenarios and to uncertainty around the global economic outlook."  

About PwC

At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. We’re a network of firms in 158 countries with over 250,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com.

PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.

© 2019 PwC. All rights reserved

Contact us

Rebecca Lloyd

Manager, Corporate Affairs, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7483 329628

Follow us