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PwC comments on ONS November CPI figures

15/12/21

"Consumer price inflation jumped up again in November, exceeding 5% and expectations. The rise in the price of petrol between October and November was the biggest monthly rise on record." 

"High inflation is here to stay in the short-term. It will take time for global supply bottlenecks and shortages to normalise and energy prices to stabilise. CPI could peak above 6% in Q2 next year as a rise in the energy price cap and the reversal of VAT cuts in hospitality and tourism create the perfect storm for higher consumer prices." 

"The Bank of England faces a tough choice tomorrow. Ahead of their next MPC meeting, the Bank will have been hoping for strong GDP and labour market data for October. They only got one." 

"While the labour market appears to have been resilient to the end of the furlough scheme, the latest GDP data suggests the recovery is on rocky ground. A rise in rates, combined with the risk of the Omicron variant, could jeopardise the UK’s economic recovery. The Bank will need to balance these considerations against the tightening in the labour market and rising expectations of inflation." 

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