Can Autonomous Electric Vehicles accelerate the low carbon transition?

_{Note: Solid lines show the decarbonisation impact assuming 100% renewable energy powers A-EVs. Dotted line alongside the RethinkX scenario shows same scenario if A-EVs are powered by electricity with 2016's grid intensity. For BP, BNEF and Wood Mackenzie, the difference between 100% renewable energy and 2016 grid mix powering the A-EVs is not material on the scale of this graph.  Historic carbon intensity calculated using data from BP, Energy Information Agency, World Bank, IMF and PwC.}

How great an impact could A-EVs have?

A-EV projections vary significantly, with implications for their impact upon decarbonisation efforts.

Rethink X’s scenario implies that renewable energy-powered A-EVs alone could bridge around a third of the gap between the 2011-16 decarbonisation rate (2.7%) and the 6.3% annual reduction needed for 2 degrees, up to 2030. BP and Wood Mackenzie’s scenarios show a more modest impact, increasing reliance on other technologies and sectors to bridge the gap to 2 degrees.

Multiple factors besides A-EV penetration will impact whether net vehicle emissions rise or fall.

Our analysis isolates A-EV technology to show ‘best case’ decarbonisation impacts from each scenario. However in real terms a range of other factors are likely to influence emissions from vehicles, such as the number of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles left on the road. RethinkX’s view that ICE vehicle ownership would actively fall while A-EV usage increases would represent a major deviation away from rising ICE vehicle ownership trends.

A-EVs will catalyse major disruptions if they deliver a step change in decarbonisation

The impact on oil demand and the wider economy in BP, BNEF and Wood Mackenzie’s scenarios is noticeable, but does not amount to a paradigm shift. In contrast, RethinkX envision a total reshaping of mobility as an on-demand service. This fundamental shift leads to oil prices dropping to $25/barrel by 2030. This leads to oil fields, pipelines and refineries all increasingly at risk of becoming uneconomic or “stranded assets”, with knock-on effects for investors.