PwC comments on the latest ONS GDP figures - June 2026

Commenting on the latest Office of National Statistics GDP data, Barret Kupelian, Chief Economist at PwC, says:

“Today’s GDP figures are small in decimal points but large in message. A 0.1% monthly contraction shows an economy being pulled in two directions: geopolitics is weighing on activity today, while artificial intelligence may be starting to lift parts of tomorrow’s economy.

“The Middle East conflict appears to have entered the UK data both directly, through weaker retail trade, and indirectly, through cancelled sporting events in the region affecting UK-based firms. Production was broadly flat, consistent with recent surveys.

“But there was also a more encouraging signal under the bonnet. Computer programming and the wider IT sector made the largest contribution to services growth. It would be premature to declare an AI productivity boom, but the early fingerprints are becoming visible, particularly in technology and parts of professional services such as consultancy. 

“The caution is that hard data tells us where the economy has been, while surveys often tell us where it is going. Recent surveys suggest the services sector has been more exposed to the fallout from Middle East turbulence, so further weakness could still appear.”