PwC comments on the latest ONS GDP figures - May 2026

Commenting on the latest Office of National Statistics GDP data, Barret Kupelian, Chief Economist at PwC, says:

“This was the first full month of data since developments in the Middle East, and the figures defied consensus. The UK economy extended its growth streak, expanding by around 0.3% month on month. More encouragingly, growth was once again broader-based than we have seen for much of the past few years.

“So what explains the resilience? The UK economy appears to have picked up speed in the first two months of the year following the Autumn Budget, and some of that momentum carried into March. Today’s data suggests that earlier momentum still had some distance to run.

“That is notable given the fog of uncertainty around the duration and severity of developments in the Middle East. When visibility is limited, behaviour tends to vary: some firms stockpile, some consumers continue to spend as normal, and others become more cautious. Today’s data indicates the first two groups outweighed the third. 

“Looking ahead, survey evidence suggests caution may build from here. The key question is whether March marks a continuation of durable momentum, or whether uncertainty begins to weigh more heavily on sentiment, spending and investment decisions in the months ahead. The latter seems more likely.”