Commenting on the latest ONS house price data, Paige Tao, Economist at PwC UK, says:
“Today's ONS data shows house prices rose 3.8% in the 12 months to April 2026, the highest annual rate since March 2025. But the headline is misleading; last April's stamp duty changes pulled transactions forward, leaving a weak base that inflates today's number. Transactions fell 3% to 101,030, as buyers remain cautious about big purchases amid rising energy costs and cost-of-living concerns. Elevated mortgage rates further squeezed affordability.
“But there are two counterweights. First, sellers are competing hard. Listings postponed from last winter still haven't cleared, and landlords offloading ahead of the Renters' Reform Bill are adding to the pile. Second, major lenders cut fixed-rate deals last week as markets settle following the initial shock of the US-Iran conflict. With a framework agreement now in place and no evidence of second-round inflationary effects so far, mortgage pricing should ease further. That could open a real window for first-time buyers looking to step onto the ladder.
“Stretched affordability in the capital is meeting a structural shift: hybrid and remote working continues to reshape where people choose to live, pulling demand outward. Outer London has broadly tracked England's average growth over the past two years, while inner London has lost ground, marking its eleventh consecutive monthly fall.”
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