“Today’s ONS data points to a housing market that has stalled. UK house price growth has slowed to its weakest rate in two years, flat at 0.0% in the 12 months to March 2026. A key development is that weakness is becoming more broad-based: the North East and North West, two of the more resilient markets over the past year, are now moving in step with London and the South East, with prices falling. As the Middle East conflict persists, renewed inflation concerns and uncertainty over interest rates are all feeding into higher mortgage pricing and making buyers more cautious.
“While there is fresh uncertainty around the economic outlook, affordability pressures may be easing at the margin for some buyers, particularly for those with large deposits or those paying with cash. Increased listings mean they can be more selective, while wage growth continues to run ahead of both inflation and house price growth. These factors are helping to offset some of the drag from elevated borrowing costs.
“But the outlook remains finely balanced. This morning’s CPI reading may appear benign, but households are temporarily shielded by the quarterly household energy price cap. If energy costs remain elevated, Ofgem's July update could revive cost-of-living pressures and further test buyer confidence.”
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