PwC UK's Chief Economist comments on the IMF World Economic Outlook - July 2026

Barret Kupelian, Chief Economist, PwC UK, comments on the latest IMF World Economic Forecast:   

“The IMF’s latest forecasts offer a modest vote of confidence in the UK economy. Growth of around 1% this year would put the UK third in the G7, behind the US at 2.3% and Canada, and ahead of Italy at 0.5%. That broadly aligns with our gradual easing scenario, where energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover gradually to around half of pre-war levels by year-end. But events in Iran today are a reminder that this is a forecast, not a promise: the outlook remains highly sensitive to geopolitics and energy flows. 

“The world economy has absorbed the energy shock better than expected, helped by inventories, stockpiling and the AI boom. For the UK, however, the business implications are bigger than the headline growth number suggests. As a net energy importer operating in an uncertain global trading environment, the UK remains exposed to more volatile inflation. For businesses, that means caution at precisely the moment when policymakers want the private sector to use its relatively healthy balance sheets to invest and grow the economy. The UK has received a growth upgrade, but businesses still need a certainty upgrade. Providing domestic certainty against a backdrop of international uncertainty should therefore be a priority for policymakers.”