PwC comments on July 2026 ONS retail sales figures

Commenting on the Office of National Statistics retail sales index for July 2026, Jacqueline Windsor, Head of Retail at PwC UK, said:   

“Following June's  better-than-expected performance, retail sales volumes slowed in July, falling by 0.5% compared with the previous month. However, sales remained up on the year - by 2.3% in volume terms excluding petrol, which corresponds to a 3.8% increase in pound notes in retailers' tills compared with last July.

“While successive heatwaves and World Cup celebrations earlier in the month helped grocery sales – of everything from beer to picky bits – the earlier timing of discounting and promotions meant that some large online and fashion retailers in particular pulled forward sales into June that would previously have been in July.

“Higher inflation, notably the higher energy price cap and higher petrol prices later in the month, also meant less money in shoppers' pockets for discretionary spending outside of grocery and fuel. 

“Despite less promotional activity from online retailers, the high street failed to benefit as heatwaves continued to impact footfall. The proportion of retail sales online fell from a revised non-pandemic record of 29.2% in June to a still high 28.3% in July.

“Although July's numbers may be lower than some observers expected, UK retail overall has had a strong spring-summer season, helped by fine weather, low inflation, and improving consumer confidence.

“As higher energy prices resulting from the Iran conflict feed through, first into the energy price cap and then into the price of food and other goods, the tide is likely to turn. We do not expect the current run of retail sales outperformance to last into Autumn and the critical run-up to Christmas.”