PwC comments on October 2025 ONS retail sales figures

Commenting on the Office of National Statistics retail sales index for October 2025, Jacqueline Windsor, Head of Retail at PwC UK: 

“Compared with October last year, retail sales excluding petrol grew 1.2% in volume terms, which translates into 3.0% more money in the tills of the nation’s retailers once inflation is taken into account. This was a slowdown on September’s results, following increases in the previous two months at the end of summer. On a month-on-month basis, October saw the first monthly fall in total retail sales since May.

“The dull weather, relatively mild start to the Autumn and stalling consumer sentiment appears to have encouraged shoppers to hold back on spending, leading to the slightly later start to Christmas shopping.

“In particular, fashion was not helped by stronger sales in preceding months and retailers will be hoping the current cold snap encourages more of us to refresh our wardrobes for the latest Autumn Winter season.

“Although online spending also fell in October, the proportion of retail sales online remained at 28.1%, as high street footfall continued to fall back.

“While October’s sales have proven to be a disappointing start to the critical ‘Golden Quarter’ in the run-up to Christmas, retailers will be hoping that shoppers are keeping their powder dry for both the Black Friday sales this month, and the first weeks of December, when the majority of us do most of our Christmas shopping.

“Despite stated interest in Black Friday declining this year according to our latest research, we are expecting an increase in consumers’ overall spending during the Black Friday sales period, up 1.5% to £6.4 billion, as the slightly fewer number of interested shoppers prepare to spend more, particularly on tech, electronics and fashion.

“Meanwhile, while consumers say that they will spend less this Christmas, previous years’ experience tells us that they typically spend up to 20% more than they plan. As a result, there is every opportunity for retailers to regain lost ground as Christmas shopping seems to start later and later every year.”