PwC comments on the latest GDP data - April 2026

Commenting on the latest Office of National Statistics GDP data, Barret Kupelian, Chief Economist at PwC, says:

“Had the UK economy begun to turn a corner after the Autumn Statement and before the latest developments in the Middle East? Today’s data suggests it had. The UK economy looked to be finding its feet, but geopolitics may yet kick the chair away. Output grew by 0.5% in the three months to February, with both production and services expanding together.

“More importantly, this was growth powered by the private sector rather than the public sector-dominated parts of the economy that had propped up much of the post-2023 picture. That suggested the recovery was becoming broader and more durable.

“The question now is whether that recovery can withstand a fresh external shock. Leading indicators and business surveys suggest that price pressures and supply constraints are already beginning to bite in parts of the economy exposed to energy-intensive commodities and downstream products. In the short term, firms can absorb some of that strain by paying more. But the longer the crisis lasts, the greater the risk that higher costs feed through into prices, margins and, ultimately, growth itself.”