Impact Measurement & Optimisation

Evaluation is an economic approach to test and attribute impact to a particular policy, programme, or initiative. This can support such programmes in meeting government (or other) targets.The National Audit Office (NAO) requires all programmes in the UK that involve significant government spending to be independently evaluated.

Our approach is grounded in UK HM Treasury Magenta Book and the 2022 NAO guidance to deliver robust evaluation. This framework applies to all private sector projects funded through the National Wealth Fund (formerly the National Infrastructure Bank).

We use Theory of Change mapping to clearly set out:

• The expected outcomes and impacts
• The ‘pathways’ through which these impacts are expected to be achieved
• The assumptions underlying those pathways

Evaluation can support you during and after implementation of the proposed policy, using econometric counterfactual modelling and VfM assessments, aligned to the HMT Green Book and the Magenta Book.

Example approaches include: Causal inference, Theory of Change, Counterfactual modelling, and Value for Money analysis.

While Gross Value Added (GVA) or Employment (FTE) are important metrics for the economy and many organisations, they often fail to capture the additional value that such organisations bring to society and the economy.

Estimating social value can demonstrate the value our clients bring to government and other institutions, that goes beyond standard monetary units.

Social value is market value plus non-market value.

Market Value

• This can be broken into direct and indirect (spillover impacts) economic effects.
• Individuals may also experience market disbenefits.

Non-Market Value

• A non-market impact is something good that people or society gain (or lose), but that isn't bought or sold for money.
• These non-market outcomes can be valued, even if they are not directly priced in the market.

Example approaches include: Non-Market impact quantification, Wellbeing Valuation, and Benefit transfer.

Behavioural economics integrates insights from social and behavioural science, challenging typical economic assumptions around human behaviour. By challenging and updating these standard assumptions, we are able to better understand the true impact that a policy, programme or business activity may have on human behaviour. Greater understanding unlocks the design of better interventions and the ability to meaningfully drive behavioural change.

Strategic Direction

• Cross-team alignment: We bring together operations, regulatory, and delivery partners around a shared behavioural agenda.
• Clear behavioural blueprint: We define what successful behaviour change looks like and how it should be delivered across teams.
• Capability building: We upskill teams through practical training in behavioural science and applied behavioural economics.

Rapid Implementation

• Operational integration: We embed behavioural change into core delivery processes to drive sustained impact.
• Practical and scalable: We create solutions that are easy to implement, replicate, and scale across the organisation.
• Co-designed solutions: We work with service teams and partners to design interventions that fit existing operations.

Data driven Insights

• Real-time insights: We use econometric techniques to identify high-impact behaviours and moments without relying on costly trials.
• Rapid optimisation: We quickly feed real-world insights back into intervention design, allowing teams to refine, improve, and scale more effectively.
• Evidence-based prioritisation: We focus behavioural efforts where they deliver the highest return, building confidence to invest and scale.

Example approaches include: Behavioural diagnostics, Intervention design, and Intervention evaluation and optimisation.