Global non-life insurance run-off reserves rise to US$1,129bn as legacy matures into a “sector for all seasons” - PwC

PwC’s sixteenth Global Insurance Run-Off Survey estimates global non-life run-off reserves to have reached US$1,129bn. This reflects a rise of 11% since the last survey,  driven by both the new business entering run-off exceeding existing run-off reserve settlements, and an increase in current run-off reserves. 

Casualty is expected to remain the most actively traded line of business in the run-off space, followed by Motor and Financial & Professional lines.    

Premiums have continued to grow across most lines of business and recent data indicates a return to pre-Covid growth trends for the Motor class. Motor and other longer-tailed liability business present a growing opportunity for legacy acquirers and capital providers as they enter into run-off. 

Market sentiment 

Overall, survey respondents are optimistic about the sector and the opportunities it presents from what has been a stable base over the past 12 months.  When asked to sum up the sector in a single word, popular responses included ‘stable’, ‘evolving’ and ‘dynamic’, capturing the tone of a sector that is actively responding to macroeconomic conditions, capital dynamics and emerging risks.

87% of respondents anticipate new capital inflows into the run-off market over the next three years. This is expected largely to be driven by a replacement of existing capital rather than backing for new entrants. There is now a high bar to entry, with capital providers looking for very experienced management teams and clear, achievable pipelines before backing new platforms. However, survey respondents indicate that legacy deal pricing remains targeted for mid teen returns which continues the solid and stable long term returns that the market can generate.   

Andy Ward, Corporate Liability Restructuring Partner, PwC UK said:

“The legacy sector is cementing its position as a sector for all seasons, adapting to deliver strong and stable returns no matter the weather. As the live insurance market shows signs of softening, the legacy sector is well placed to meet future deal flow. Its ability to consistently create value through different market cycles shows why it is increasingly central to the wider insurance value chain.  

Deal volumes show momentum 

PwC’s analysis identifies 25 publicly announced non-life run-off transactions since January 2025, involving the transfer of disclosed US$1.131bn in gross reserves. This shows increased comparable volume vs last year, when a total of 33 publicly disclosed deals were announced across 12 months, with US$6.6bn in estimated gross liabilities transferred. 

In recent years, average deal sizes have broadly increased. This trend has reversed since Q4 2024 and throughout 2025 so far, during which the market has seen plenty of deal activity but largely at the midsized or smaller end. However, survey respondents forecast that a return to larger legacy deal sizes may be in store. Almost half (47%) identified US$250mn to US$1bn as the deal size range (by estimated gross liabilities) with the greatest opportunity for deals in the next 18 months. US$50mn to US$250mn (29%) and sub-US$50mn (19%) were the next highest scoring responses, with only 5% choosing a deal size of US$1bn+. 

Most respondents expect global deal activity to remain stable or increase over the next 18 months, with 44%% and 62% predicting increased activity in North America and the Rest of the World respectively. Just 8% anticipate increased levels of deal activity in the UK and Ireland, reflecting a growing sense of maturity in that market. 

Emerging risks

Overall, PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) - synthetic chemicals found in a wide range of products and linked to environmental contamination and adverse human health effects - is the emerging risk to watch. Claims are emerging across multiple lines and unknown PFAS liabilities may delay deals or affect pricing. Overall, survey respondents believe that portfolios including PFAS liabilities remain transactable, but 55% expect consolidators to amend deal structures through exclusions or sub-limits. 34% expect to see increases in risk premiums. 

Rebecca Wilkinson, Corporate Liability Restructuring Director, PwC UK, said:

“We’re seeing signs of a new trend emerging: more publicly disclosed transactions, but at the smaller or midsized end of the market. Our survey shows that, while some well-established players have the capacity to execute very large deals, megadeals will continue to be significantly outnumbered by deals at the lower range. 

“One emerging risk the market increasingly has its eye on is PFAS claims, which are still in their infancy but growing in prominence. Our survey shows the market is not dissuaded from deals including PFAS portfolios, but we should expect deal structures to be adapted to cater for these exposures.”

-Ends-

Notes to Editors:

This is the sixteenth edition of this survey. As in previous reports, the focus is on the non-life insurance run-off market. The methodology followed is outlined below: 

• An online survey was sent to a cross-section of individuals at re/insurers, legacy business acquirers, brokers, service providers and other stakeholders in the non-life legacy insurance market.
• Responses are anonymous but PwC has included quotes approved by industry participants.
• Where appropriate, we have rounded results to ensure the totals add up to 100%.
• The research was conducted by PwC UK. 

Estimated market size Run-off reserves have been estimated using publicly available premium information. Assumptions have been made regarding the ultimate loss ratios and payment patterns in order to determine the level of unpaid claims. Judgement has also been used to establish the years of account assumed to be in run-off, based on the nature of the liabilities, plus manual adjustments for liabilities not in the data.