PwC comments on July 2025 ONS GDP figures

Commenting on the latest ONS GDP data, Barret Kupelian, Chief Economist at PwC, says:

“A single month’s GDP is like a lone brushstroke; it tells you little. However, when paired together with other months, it gives us an indication of the direction of travel for the economy. And that story is beginning to turn sour for the UK.

“Today’s data release showed us that the growth momentum recorded earlier in the year is slowing down rapidly as the economy contracted on a monthly basis for a second time in a row in May.

“Despite the early May fanfare over the US-UK economic prosperity deal (EPD), output in the car and pharmaceutical industries contracted. Tariff uncertainty still hangs over industry like a stubborn fog. The services sector grew marginally, offsetting some of the negative momentum in the rest of the economy.

“Our main scenario projection before today’s data release showed the UK middle-of-the-pack when ranked amongst the G7 on economic growth for this year, growing at about 1%. Now, with growth momentum rapidly slowing, there’s a genuine risk we slip down the rankings.”