The 2024/2025 IETA greenhouse gas market sentiment survey is the 19th annual survey produced by PwC’s Sustainability team for the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA). It surveyed more than 140 IETA members to understand perceptions of the current drivers shaping voluntary and compliance carbon markets.
Following the convergence of global carbon markets over the past two years, the 2024/2025 survey has been structured to focus on topic-led discussions instead of the regional approach adopted in previous surveys. The six key topics selected represent key regulatory, voluntary and market-driven forces shaping global carbon pricing and emissions trading.
“This year’s survey underscores that integrity and implementation are the watchwords of 2025. Markets are maturing, and while near-term volatility persists, the long-term direction of travel, toward credible, connected, and higher-quality carbon pricing, remains clear.”
Sushmita Seelam, Senior Manager, Sustainability, PwC Strategy& Value Creation
Key findings from this year’s survey
- Emissions Trading Systems (ETS): Overall sentiment reflects reserved confidence. While respondents broadly support the expansion and linkage of national ETS, confidence in timelines and integration has weakened since 2023. Uncertainty around implementation and design details persists, but expectations for long-term convergence and inclusion of removals remain strong.
- Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM): Attitudes remain optimistic that EU CBAM will protect EU companies from carbon leakage. Recent changes the EU has made, tightening anti-circumvention rules and reducing the administrative burden of CBAM, are in line with respondents’ views on the main considerations for ensuring the long term success of CBAM. However, despite a clear legal framework, stakeholders still doubt whether the sale of CBAM certificates will commence on time.
- CORSIA: Respondents express muted confidence in CORSIA’s ability to achieve Phase 1 compliance, with the majority anticipating undersupply by 2027 and only a small minority expecting market balance. Views are shaped by scepticism over credit availability, fragmented policy alignment between the EU and ICAO, and weak enforcement capacity. While recent reforms improve transparency and reduce offset demand, sentiment remains cautious, most see CORSIA’s success hinging on scaling eligible supply, ensuring consistent global enforcement, and clarifying long-term design to secure participation.
- Article 6: Confidence in Article 6 strengthened in 2024–2025, with 91% of respondents viewing it as a key driver of climate action following the COP29 ‘playbook’. However, concerns persist around complex methodologies, limited host-country capacity, and weak market demand, underscoring the need for greater clarity and coordination to realise its full potential.
- Voluntary Carbon Market: In 2024 - 2025, the voluntary carbon market entered a phase of transformation, with integrity, transparency, and trust emerging as core priorities amid tightening standards and evolving methodologies. Despite ongoing uncertainty and declining transaction volumes, respondents were cautiously optimistic that stronger governance, growing alignment with compliance markets, and rising demand for high-quality removal credits are signalling a more credible and resilient market ahead.
- Price projections: Sentiment towards future carbon prices remains bullish despite falling average prices in the voluntary and some compliance markets in 2024. Lower prices have reduced confidence in the scale of price increases expected in compliance markets with all predictions lower than previous survey results in 2023 and 2022.
“As carbon markets evolve and integrity takes centre stage, leaders who engage early will unlock strategic, operational and reputational advantages in the transition to a low-carbon economy.”
Bryan Hartlin, Director, Sustainability, PwC Strategy& Value Creation
The graph below compares expected carbon prices across major emissions trading schemes (ETS) between 2025 and 2030. The values shown are based on responses to the PwC and IETA market sentiment surveys from 2022, 2023, and 2024/25.
Comparison of ETS price projections from the last three market sentiment surveys.
Source: PwC & IETA’s GHG Sentiment Survey 2024/2025
In the voluntary market, prices are expected to increase by 2030, primarily expected to be driven by alignment with Article 6 and national ETS. Superimposed on this trend, the price premium of high-quality credits is expected to continue to increase to 2030.
Comparison of respondent ETS price projections for 2025-2027 and 2028-2030 with average actual ETS prices from 2024.
Source: PwC & IETA’s GHG Sentiment Survey 2024/2025
The report’s authors would be very happy to discuss what this could mean for your business or organisation. If you are interested, please refer to the contacts below.
PwC & IETA’s GHG Sentiment Survey 2024/2025
