Mixed picture for Welsh cities in the annual Demos-PwC Good Growth for Cities Index

The annual Demos-PwC Good Growth for Cities Index (‘the Index’) paints a mixed picture for Wales, with Cardiff dropping four places to 17^th and Swansea rising one place to 41^st.

The Index ranks 50 of the UK’s largest cities, excluding London, based on both the public’s assessment and the actual performance of 12 economic measures. These measures include jobs, health, income, safety and skills, as well as work-life balance, housing, transport, income equality, high street and shops, environment and business startups.

Cardiff and Swansea both perform well on metrics relating to income distribution, owner occupation and work-life balance, but fall behind the national average for income, health and new businesses. They perform relatively similarly for over half of the variables included within the Index, suggesting that they face many of the same challenges. The key differences are that Swansea is safer – measured by violent crime, weapons and drugs offences - than the national average and Cardiff is less safe, and Swansea has a significantly lower environment score than the national average while Cardiff has an above average environment score.

Stuart Couch, Market Senior Partner for PwC in Cardiff, said:

“Our Good Growth for Cities Index shows us what is important to the public, and how different cities perform against those priorities. It’s a powerful tool for identifying the conditions that get in the way of meaningful, tangible improvements in our lives and communities.

The national picture

York is the highest performing city in the annual Index, with Edinburgh rising to second place and Bristol in third place. These cities scored highly across high streets, skills, and jobs which are key indicators of prosperity that the public increasingly values. York ranked among the top three cities for both high street and jobs.

Cities across the South West region continue to perform well with Bristol (3^rd), Exeter (4^th) and Swindon (5^th) all in the top five highest performing cities. All three cities score  significantly above the UK average on jobs and high streets, and Swindon and Exeter both performed well in skills.

Scottish cities have performed well this year. Edinburgh secured the second overall position, while Aberdeen was this year’s most improved city, jumping 25 spots to 12^th place. Glasgow also showed considerable progress, climbing 13 places to rank 18^th, making it the third most improved city. Aberdeen has climbed up the rankings due to significant improvements in jobs and income distribution and Glasgow with stronger performances in skills, safety, and work-life balance. 

Public refocusing on the basics of daily life

PwC research indicates a convergence in the public's priorities this year, with financial considerations becoming less dominant in favour of tangible, local, and essential concerns such as high streets and shops, skills, housing, and transport. Although income and income distribution remain key priorities and are still the public’s most cited factors for economic success, they have seen the most significant year-on-year decline. However, three of the biggest fallers in this year’s Index, Cambridge, Leicester and Liverpool, have seen large declines in their performance in the jobs metric.  

However, it is unlikely that this shift reflects a renewed sense of optimism around household finances. PwC’s recent Consumer Sentiment Survey reveals that concerns around inflation and job security have deepened across all demographics, particularly among younger people and those on lower incomes. Even the top three cities in the Index, York, Edinburgh and Bristol face challenges around affordability as despite low unemployment figures, all three have more moderate scores on income. 

Rachel Taylor, Government and Health Industries Leader at PwC, said:

“Our research indicates that ongoing financial pressures are pushing people to prioritise things that improve their quality of life and future prospects. Bustling high streets, new businesses, and reliable transport links build confidence and optimism. To strengthen local and regional economies in the UK, we need to concentrate on the fundamental elements that support thriving communities and businesses. This involves maximising local strengths with genuine economic potential and achieving noticeable results. 

“Good growth strategies should recognise the link between economic and social foundations. People need secure jobs, accessible services, reliable transport, and a sense of wellbeing to thrive, while businesses rely on healthy, skilled populations and stable infrastructure to grow.” 

Some UK cities to see above average growth

Although economic activity grew fast in the first half of the year, it is anticipated to decelerate in the second half. With this national backdrop, Brighton, Edinburgh, Manchester, and Liverpool are expected to outpace the UK average growth rate of around 1.2% this year. These cities have successfully merged economic diversification with investments in infrastructure and innovation. Manchester and Liverpool demonstrate how strategic public and private investments, backed by devolution and targeted sector strategies, can enhance long-term growth potential.   

However, other cities face tougher challenges. Despite scoring highly on the Index, Plymouth and York have weaker growth forecasts due to their reliance on slower-growing sectors such as manufacturing. Sunderland, where this sector accounts for over a fifth of the economy, is anticipated to grow more slowly than other cities in the Index, impacted by global volatility and delays in essential infrastructure projects such as electrification. 

Economic growth can be driven by either expanding the workforce or by utilising labour and capital more efficiently. Certain cities, like Norwich, are expected to grow primarily through population increases, which in turn boost demand and workforce size. However, this does not always translate to improved living standards or higher output per person. Excluding population growth, cities such as Bournemouth and Birmingham climb up the Index due to strong productivity gains, supported by investments in digital infrastructure, knowledge-based sectors, and urban regeneration. This highlights the importance of prioritising investment-led growth over merely expanding in scale. 

Carl Sizer, Chief Markets Officer at PwC, said:

“The cities and regions making the most progress are those that align their sector priorities with local strengths and invest in essentials like housing, transport, digital infrastructure, and skills. They ensure that the priorities of communities, employers, and key institutions are in sync. A strong economic identity is crucial, understanding what a place stands for, its strengths, and growth plans is vital for local leaders, investors, businesses, and residents alike. Clarity helps direct decisions, focus efforts, and make a strong case for investment.

“With these foundations, local growth strategies become more than policy documents. They serve as a framework connecting short-term efforts with long-term goals, organising choices to support resilience, opportunity, and inclusive growth. To stay relevant, these strategies need to be active and adaptable, regularly updated, transparently tracked, and based on clear insights into what's working and what needs change.” 

-Ends-

Notes to Editors:  

About the Good Growth for Cities Index

• The Demos-PwC Good Growth for Cities Index was established in 2011 and is updated annually.  

• In recognition of its unique scale and economy, London is not included in this year’s Good Growth Index.

• The Index looks beyond core economic indicators (such as GDP) and instead considers broad measures of economic wellbeing to measure success. The Index measures the performance of 50 of the UK's largest cities, each typically having a population of at least 340,000, excluding London. It also assesses 37 Rural Areas, based on the prior Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) definitions, and 16 Combined Authorities and city regions, using a set of 12 factors deemed most crucial by the public for economic well-being. These include jobs, health, income, safety and skills, as well as work-life balance, housing, travel-to-work times, income equality, high street and shops, environment and business start-ups. More details on the methodology can be found in the report here.