Macroeconomics

Global economic risk outlook for the risk committee of a global insurer

We were asked to provide a view on the global and regional macroeconomic outlook over a short to medium timeframe as well as implications for the longer term. We used horizon scanning to develop plausible future macroeconomic scenarios and identify the potential risks facing the global economy. For deep dives into the key risks we identified, we performed bespoke scenario analysis focused on the trigger points, mechanisms and impacts which could then be mapped to the client’s credit risk exposures.

We used this analysis to develop a framework to present to the Credit Risk subcommittee and to facilitate future discussions on the macroeconomic outlook.

World Economic Forum - Estimating the economic impact of upskilling

We worked with the World Economic Forum to make the case for upskilling and highlight some of the challenges, including the disconnect between current education programmes and the skills employers need now and in the future. We analysed how upskilling could boost economic growth and how investment in the development across geographies and sectors can reshape economies. Using PwC’s global Computable General Equilibrium model, we modelled a core and an accelerated scenario for the speed at which countries are able to reduce skills gaps in line with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s industry best practice. In our accelerated scenario, which assumes skills gaps are closed by 2028, we estimated that this could boost global GDP by US$6.5 trillion and create 5.3 million net new jobs by 2030. These economic gains would take the form of skill enhancement, leading to the improved matching of people’s skill with the jobs created by digital technologies. We estimate that this would boost global productivity by 3%, on average, by 2030.

Digitalisation Index in a G20 economy

We supported the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology in a G20 economy to build a national digitisation transformation index that was able to track digital maturity and progress in key sectors.

We developed an index of digitisation based around a framework that categorises its key enablers, including the efficiency of the regulatory and policy environment, the soundness of the ICT infrastructure and the readiness of households and businesses to make use of digital goods and services. Using appropriate weighting and aggregation, the index provides a digital transformation score for priority sectors and the economy as a whole.

The index has allowed the country’s Government to benchmark its own digital transformation journey against its peers as well as global digital leaders, providing a key framework for driving and evaluating the implementation of the digital strategy. The index is a crucial tool in communicating the country’s progress to investors, to businesses and to citizens.

Helping Singapore shape its future as a leading global city

We helped the Singaporean National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) to understand how the city-state’s competitiveness could change following recent changes to its demographics. Our holistic approach to city management involved tailored benchmark analysis of Singapore and nine comparator world cities, which allowed us to identify the existing and potential future gaps in the city’s demographic, economic, sustainability and infrastructure policies. We then developed three scenarios to model the impacts of different policies Singapore could implement for the future, enabling the city-state to maintain its position as a world city beyond 2030.