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Macroeconomics

We work with businesses and governments to help assess the impact of the macroeconomy and their chosen markets on their operations and devise strategies to seize opportunities and to prepare for risks and future challenges.

It has never been more important to plan for the future. The COVID-19 pandemic is a stark reminder of how governments and businesses need to prepare for change, adapt for the future and develop resilience grounded in analysis.

Our macroeconomics consulting team helps clients around the world make better decisions through better analysis. We do this by analysing macroeconomic trends and developments, forecasting macroeconomic variables, assessing a range of economic scenarios, and distilling our insights into tangible strategy documents which provide recommendations for policymakers and businesses based on our own bespoke analysis. We also tap into the wider sector and country expertise of the PwC network across the world.

The macroeconomics consulting team has a long record of applying economic tools in new and innovative ways, providing evidence-based insights to support strategic and business planning.

How we use macroeconomics to help clients

Build long term economic growth plans for policymakers

  • We work with supra-national institutions, national governments and Ministries of Finance and Local Authorities to create strategies for long-term sustainable growth that drive competitiveness, from developing vision pieces to policy recommendations.
  • We develop macroeconomic frameworks to build national and sector indices that combine economic expertise with PwC sector insight.

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Demand analysis

  • Revenue forecasting: We do this by building econometric models that link economic forecast and industry indicators to revenue or cost growth
  • Market sizing: We assess the attractiveness of new markets (regions, countries or cities) or provide benchmarks for strategic analysis and market entry strategies

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Supply analysis

  • Cost forecasting for commodities, wages or other bespoke inflation indices particularly relevant for the construction industry

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Stress testing and scenario planning

  • We work with financial institutions (banks, pension funds, insurers) and non-financial corporations to build relevant stress-test scenarios for forecasting and strategic planning.
  • Our scenario planning draws on bespoke tools such as our bespoke World in 2050 model

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Board and C-suite presentations, executive dialogue, speaking engagements and media commentary

  • We regularly meet with C-suite executives and maintain a dialogue on some of the following questions: What is the current outlook for your key markets? What does the uncertain outlook mean for your bottom line? How can you best prepare for the next crisis?
  • We regularly present to Boards and can be engaged for industry speaking engagements around the world on bespoke macroeconomic issues.

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Case studies

Develop long-term economic strategies for competitive and sustainable growth

We have worked with several European governments, Ministries of Finance and UK Local Authorities to develop their strategies to achieve competitive and sustainable economic growth. We start from assessing the economy’s strengths and weaknesses and identifying the opportunities and threats they face. This current state assessment uncovers the economy’s current and potential comparative advantages that should inform the development of a long-term strategy.

We combine macroeconomic analysis with insights from in-country PwC experts to define an inspiring vision piece for the economy and develop an economic strategy to achieve it. We also analyse short- to long-term trends in sectors, drawing on PwC experts to identify what sectors and subsectors might drive growth going forward. We have experience working with policymakers, academia and the private sector to develop policy recommendations and reforms that will help the economy work towards achieving this goal.

Global economic risk outlook for the risk committee of a global insurer

We were asked to provide a view on the global and regional macroeconomic outlook over a short to medium timeframe as well as implications for the longer term. We used horizon scanning to develop plausible future macroeconomic scenarios and identify the potential risks facing the global economy. For deep dives into the key risks we identified, we performed bespoke scenario analysis focused on the trigger points, mechanisms and impacts which could then be mapped to the client’s credit risk exposures.

We used this analysis to develop a framework to present to the Credit Risk subcommittee and to facilitate future discussions on the macroeconomic outlook.

World Economic Forum - Estimating the economic impact of upskilling

We worked with the World Economic Forum to make the case for upskilling and highlight some of the challenges, including the disconnect between current education programmes and the skills employers need now and in the future. We analysed how upskilling could boost economic growth and how investment in the development across geographies and sectors can reshape economies. Using PwC’s global Computable General Equilibrium model, we modelled a core and an accelerated scenario for the speed at which countries are able to reduce skills gaps in line with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s industry best practice. In our accelerated scenario, which assumes skills gaps are closed by 2028, we estimated that this could boost global GDP by US$6.5 trillion and create 5.3 million net new jobs by 2030. These economic gains would take the form of skill enhancement, leading to the improved matching of people’s skill with the jobs created by digital technologies. We estimate that this would boost global productivity by 3%, on average, by 2030.

Digitalisation Index in a G20 economy

We supported the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology in a G20 economy to build a national digitisation transformation index that was able to track digital maturity and progress in key sectors.

We developed an index of digitisation based around a framework that categorises its key enablers, including the efficiency of the regulatory and policy environment, the soundness of the ICT infrastructure and the readiness of households and businesses to make use of digital goods and services. Using appropriate weighting and aggregation, the index provides a digital transformation score for priority sectors and the economy as a whole.

The index has allowed the country’s Government to benchmark its own digital transformation journey against its peers as well as global digital leaders, providing a key framework for driving and evaluating the implementation of the digital strategy. The index is a crucial tool in communicating the country’s progress to investors, to businesses and to citizens.

Helping Singapore shape its future as a leading global city

We helped the Singaporean National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) to understand how the city-state’s competitiveness could change following recent changes to its demographics. Our holistic approach to city management involved tailored benchmark analysis of Singapore and nine comparator world cities, which allowed us to identify the existing and potential future gaps in the city’s demographic, economic, sustainability and infrastructure policies. We then developed three scenarios to model the impacts of different policies Singapore could implement for the future, enabling the city-state to maintain its position as a world city beyond 2030.

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Contact us

Dr Jonathan Gillham

Dr Jonathan Gillham

Chief Economist and Director of Econometrics and Economic Modelling, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7714 567297

Barret Kupelian

Barret Kupelian

Senior Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7711 562331

Hannah Audino

Hannah Audino

Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7483 348728

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