10 critical success factors for the UK’s Defence Space capability

The UK does have strength here, particularly in the manufacturing of small satellites, and whilst there are major satellite developments planned for Defence including SkyNet and a new constellation of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites, there is a clear ambition from the MoD’s Space Directorate to shift more of the focus towards the opportunities at the other end of the value chain, i.e. the exploitation of data.

There are already over 900 earth observation (EO) satellites in orbit (the civil term equivalent for ISR), with significant amounts of data and use cases at the fingertips of operators. However, this data hasn’t yet come close to its market potential if revenue projections are to be believed - EO operators are forecasting enormous growth in the years to come. For example, one of the major EO organisations is forecasting to grow revenues from $70m in 2021 to ~$1.2bn in 2025.

For Defence Space capabilities, greater investment and focus needs to be placed on understanding how advanced space-based data analytics can derive insight and meaningful action for the MoD, transforming intelligence capabilities and military operations at a ‘speed of relevance’ to the warfighter, and building trust in the data. This will include the application of AI and other innovative technologies to process, assure and extract mission critical findings. There are certainly quick wins to be achieved here in accessing the data that already exists.

The organisational landscape for space is relatively new and has been evolving; the pace and scale of change is leading to a degree of ambiguity that needs resolving. The complex ecosystem includes the MoD Space Directorate, Space Command, Air Command (where Space Command resides), Strategic Command, Defence Digital, Defence Equipment & Support (DE&S) and the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL). Understanding how industry plugs in at each stage of capability management is a challenge. This challenge is exacerbated by a similarly changing landscape in the civil space sector.

For Defence, key questions from industry include who is owning and leading each of the space programmes and coordinating industry engagement, offering innovation funding and shaping strategic decisions. For example, when should Strategic Command own a capability versus Space Command? And what flexibility will the MoD and Air Command allow for novel acquisition and capability management processes?

Given UK Space Command has only just reached IOC, and the organisations are all maturing at pace, some uncertainty is unsurprising. However, it will be important to set a clear Target Operating Model for the Space Defence enterprise for the benefit of Government and industry. 'Creating a single front door and ‘engagement platform’ through which industry operates is often discussed but needs real effort to implement.

Unlike many of the current Defence capabilities employed by our armed forces, the vast majority of space-based capabilities have the potential for dual-use application. Examples range from leveraging intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance (ISR) satellite data for urban planning purposes, greater space domain awareness (SDA) to help manage commercial communications satellites, and secure positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) satellite services for resilient critical national infrastructure including smart city transportation. Furthermore, the importance of talent attraction, development and retention is shared across Defence and Civil domains.

Unlocking dual-use opportunities could have a significant positive impact, increasing the budget available for space investment and widening the potential capability benefits. These dual-use opportunities will mean both working with non-Defence Whitehall Departments, but also potentially with new generation commercial space organisations without previous experience of working with Defence. The implications of operationalising their capability for Defence needs to be made clear for these organisations, for example how to manage security controls, classified information, employee vetting, insurance, export controls and interoperability with allies. Importantly, does ‘military use’ make civilian systems and the companies that operate them a legitimate target for any adversary? These implications will need to be considered carefully if the MoD is to capitalise on the dual-use opportunities.

The pace of innovation in the space sector means that there is a diverse range of potential technology options available to Defence, both space-based and terrestrial. However, there is an emerging realisation of the importance for the MoD and industry to not be technology-led, and perhaps not even requirements-driven, but rather problem statement-led. Shifting the thinking from ‘what type of satellites do we put up?’ Towards ‘how do we solve a given operational challenge?’

To uncover these problem statements, Defence will need to understand leveraging space to solve problems the rapidly evolving threat picture both towards its space-based assets as well as the utility of space-based capabilities for the other frontline commands and the intelligence community. Therefore, meaningful engagement with the Army, Navy and Air Force, plus Strategic Command, will be critical. Taking a recent example - how could connectivity and intelligence challenges faced by Carrier Strike Group 2021 deployment be met through space-based capabilities?

There are a number of options to facilitate this wider engagement - through collaborative workshops, wargaming exercises, cross-domain conference events or even embedding space experts within different command groups (and vice-versa) with ‘leveraging Space to solve problems’ at the heart of the objectives. Given the pace of technological development and potential aggressor capabilities, there is a clear need to move forward with a mindset that capitalises on space technology, rather than simply replacing the capabilities that are already available today. Truly leading with a problem statement will help to unlock the potential of the space domain for all frontline commands.

Through DSTL research and development (R&D) and a number of high profile demonstrator projects, the first few years of the MoD’s space portfolio will be critical to shape what major investments need to be made from the middle of this decade when higher funding is available. Senior leadership in the MoD and in industry are championing an ‘agile methodology’ using bite-sized increments for translating from Science and Technology programmes into acquisition and capability development. The intent is clear. Working out how this happens in practice, and what freedoms may be required in MoD acquisition processes to make this a reality, is still quite light on detail. Key factors that will help include:

• Cohering activity around a problem statement (or several), as described above, which may evolve over time but is importantly owned and sponsored jointly across relevant Front Line Commands
•  Setting procurement conditions to foster innovation - adding capability rapidly and iteratively
• Developing clarity of target benefits from R&D activity, in particular the critically needed evidence to underpin a robust business case
• Working collaboratively from the outset - engaging early and often with key stakeholders across the capability lifecycle, from DSTL’s R&D teams, through to delivery (e.g. DE&S and Defence Digital) and end use (Front Line Commands). Additionally, collaborative engagement with cross Whitehall departments including the UKSA and the industrial base will be key.

The desire to be faster, more innovative and agile aren’t objectives confined to the Defence Space sector, but rather are shared across many industries - take Formula 1 motor racing as an example. In such a high-performance environment, teams embed an agile mindset in almost everything they do, modifying and sometimes even ‘re-constructing’ their car every weekend based on data insights from previous races, and changes to the operating environment.

Could this approach translate to the way that Defence thinks about the technology associated with space? It might involve moving away from large and expensive long endurance satellites, towards rapidly developed small satellites, which can be put up and taken down in rapid bursts, or enhanced through in-orbit software upgrades and modular approaches to in-orbit capability development. With all this potential, the question is: are these sectors just here for Defence to learn from, or is there an opportunity to actually work collaboratively with them?

The need to collaborate with the industrial base has been recognised as a key success factor for Space Command. Empowering and supporting industry to invest and innovate in space-based technologies through the right level of trusted engagement is the key to success and at the moment there is little guidance. Having a robust and credible Space Sector Policy that signals to the industrial base what role the Government will play in shaping the sector and how industry can support the development of military capabilities will set the foundations for a strengthened relationship between the MoD and industry.

With plans announced at the Defence 2022 Space Conference in May to produce a sector policy that covers civil and military use of space, the Government has signalled its intent to having a first draft by the end of 2022 - this will be welcome news for the businesses that operate in the sector and will be critical for the delivery of the MoD’s Defence Space Strategy. Moreover, given the breadth of players that are entering the sector, the MoD will need to think carefully about how it engages in a consistent and meaningful way - overcoming security and commercial sensitivities through building collaborative partnerships and trade forums could offer one solution here.

It will be extremely difficult for the UK to be a ‘meaningful actor in space’ if it goes it alone. A limited budget, rare technical skills and nascent UK capability in some areas means that international collaboration will be critical to achieve MoD’s military and security objectives. To date, MoD’s greatest partner has been the US, for example providing deep intelligence on space domain awareness through Fylingdales as well as encrypted positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) signals through GPS. However, UK Defence is increasingly partnering with the other members of the Five Eyes intelligence community: Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

Australia in particular provides an interesting proposition for the UK having recently published their own Defence Space Strategy and established a Space Command. The UK has already set up a framework agreement for space collaboration with Australia (the 2021 ‘Space Bridge’), and with both countries exploring similar target capabilities with similar budgets, there could be significant opportunities for collaboration. Australia also brings an angle to improve UK presence in the Indo-Pacific, as sought by the UK Integrated Review, which could also bring potential partnerships opportunities with other regional space-faring nations such as Japan and India.

In addition, exploitation of dual-use technology opportunities with the civil domain is an important part of the UK Defence Space Strategy - collaboration with the UK Space Agency and BEIS Space Directorate could help to open up a wide range of international opportunities in Europe through the European Space Agency, which the UK is still a part of.

International collaboration can be executed in a number of different ways including framework agreements or Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs). Recent MOUs between the UKSA and the Canadian Space Agency on information sharing and with the Saudi Space Commission on peaceful uses of outer space illustrate the willingness to use such mechanisms. However, to fully capitalise on the opportunity of international collaboration will require the UK to make clear choices on who we work with and what the UK brings to the table; there needs to be a mutual benefit for both sides.

The theme of space sector skills and talent has been identified as one of the most important enablers for the development of future space-based capabilities - this is equally applicable to the civil side of the sector and presents a further opportunity for effective cross Government collaboration between MoD, BEIS, UKSA and DfE.

The role of schools, colleges and universities cannot be overstated here in developing the curriculums, attracting the students and pushing the boundaries of academic research to capture the imagination of the young people that will work in the sector to develop and operate the space-based technology of the future. Core design engineering and aerodynamics are critical, but so are data analytics, data visualisation, computing, financial, strategic and project management skills. Crucially, these skills are also required in other sectors, and so the space sector will be competing with other Defence and high tech industries for talent.

It is encouraging to see initiatives such as the UK's National Space Academy programme providing a focal point for education and skills in the sector and the linkages with the MoD Space Directorate and Space Command are strong indicators that the MoD has recognised the importance of building people capability for the future. As the nascent cadre of experts in Space Command grows towards the Full Operational Capability point, a key challenge will be the retention of Armed Forces personnel with the space skills and experience. This may require extended tour lengths for certain grades and specialisation to maintain people capability. Addressing this through the Space Command’s recently completed Training Needs Analysis will be fundamental for success.